Blogger AndPhysics (a.k.a wotty, wotts etc) has frightened himself. We learn he’s done this by not reading the latest scary IPCC report.
I haven’t really had a chance to read the newly released WGII Summary for Policy Makers, but I have had a quick glance and have read some related articles.
That’s right. He’s not read the report, he’s not read even a summary of it. Draft versions of both were leaked and have been available for a long time now.
Clearly, this knowledge gap is useful to fortify one’s prior convictions about climate catastrophe. I wonder why no Dan Kahan would research this psychology. Climate alarm resides under the shady branches of huge error bars weathering storms of criticism. Not even reading the reports must confer additional benefit.
Variations on the fright routines are almost endless. One we’ve heard recently from activists are that they are not alarmed. But to their great trepidation, they learned how scientists have been privately peeing in their pants in climate terror. Keyes has the details.
A couple of days back, Andphysics put another interesting form of alarmism on display: argument from fantasy. Briefly, it goes like this: ‘imagine if something bad ‘X’ happened. We could say ‘I told you so’. I quote:
So, if we do have a big El Niño later this year … maybe I (and many others) could say “told you so”.
‘X’ in this case is ‘warmest year ever’. Pretending it is bad is assuredly a lie, instead it provides for newspaper headline opportunities. Hoping for a Super El-Nino has been a staple fantasy of climate alarmists. It allows them to sponge off any warmth occurring from natural variability for CO2, for the cause.
But to say ‘I told you so’, you have to first predict something ‘X’ and ‘X’ has to then happen.
Prediction means sticking your neck out. It means skin in the game. Andphysics’ trick is to hide his non-prediction in the folds of long, flowing blog posts. That doesn’t prevent him from imagining seeing himself having predicted an El-Nino, if it were to happen. Wrap your head around that a bit.
The odds of an El-Nino this year are apparently 0.6, i.e., slightly better than a coin toss.