Scare Pollution is the story of Steve Milloy’s investigation of experiments the US Environmental Protection Agency conducted on human subjects with diesel exhaust. Milloy stumbled upon the EPA’s activities when it published a case report of a middle-aged woman who developed cardiac arrhythmias and needed to be taken to the hospital. It turned out she was one of several study subjects who were exposed to diesel exhaust piped into test chambers, and monitored.
EPA claims the purported notorious killer PM2.5 in diesel exhaust killed hundreds of thousands of people in the United States every year and needs to be regulated stringently.
Behind closed doors, when questions over the experiments arose the EPA had a remarkable defense: PM2.5 was actually not dangerous when inhaled in high concentrations, at all. It was just some harmless experimentation.
This kind of two-faced rhetoric is common in the climate debate. The latest example surrounds John Bates’ criticism of Karl et al 2015 (K15), a paper touting the effect of adjustments to the instrumental global average record.
Karl et al came out in 2015, some months before the Paris climate agreement. At the time climate consensusists were getting hammered by questions about the pause, an 18-year stretch starting 1997 that showed almost no increase in global temperatures. K15 ocean temperature adjustments tweaked the global average just enough to create an upward trend.
This is the headline Carbon Brief ran for the paper:
The authors were clear their paper affected the pause.
This was their title:
This was their abstract:
This was the editorial note to the paper:
To anyone, the paper was about the pause. It’s in the paper title, abstract, and accompanying press releases.
If you got your news from Zeke Hausfather or Victor Venema …
…you would think K15 almost had nothing to do with the pause.
Venema is fond of pushing the line that adjustments ‘reduce global warming.’ By focusing on the pause K15’s authors left themselves and the practice of adjustments open to the charge of manipulation of trends. Adjustments actually ‘make our estimate of global warming smaller,’ says Venema, as he castigates David Rose for printing John Bates’ objections.
So we have quite some irony here. Rose never mentions that the adjustments make our estimate of global warming smaller; that would not have fit into the conspiracy he is trying to sell.
The context was only slightly different but here he is in 2015, pushing the same line:
Being land creatures people do not always realise how big the ocean is, but 71% of the Earth is ocean. Thus if you combine these two temperature signals taking the area of the land and the ocean into account you get the result below. The net effect of the adjustments is a reduction of global warming.
It was the skeptics, and David Rose, who focus on the ‘right end’ of the global temperature (the pause):
But Rose is obsessed with the top panel. I made the graph extra large, so that you can see the differences. […] The “problem” is the minute change at the right end of the curves.
You can see Sou Bundanga pushing the same message here:
Applying the corrections to the sea surface temperature data reduces, not increases, the rate of warming over the instrumental period. This is the opposite to what deniers often claim – that all adjustments increase warming!
She even includes a graph from the paper she annotated to drive home the point:
Here’s Realclimate’s Gavin Schmidt at it:
The second panel is useful, demonstrating that the net impact of all corrections to the raw measurements is to reduce the overall trend.
What Schmidt, Venema and the others perform here is pure misdirection.
‘Question Karl et al’s adjustments, will you? Look at all adjustments. We even reduce trends and global warming. You should have no problem buying Karl et al.’
The reality, almost no skeptic has questioned adjustments to the sea surface records of the 1910-1940 period. In fact, there are reasons to question them, apart from the straw-man arguments of Venema and Schmidt. These NOAA adjustments—which are present in ERSSTv3 and have nothing to do with Karl et al—by reducing the 1910-’40 rate, make temperatures match climate models more easily. They reduce an inconveniently high rate of warming during a period with reduced anthropogenic CO2.
Speaking of complaints about reduced rates, here is the effect of NOAA’s methods on the 1940-1979 period, compared to HADCRUT:
That’s right – by reducing the rate of cooling, NOAA renders 1945 – 1974 as a warming period!
No one objected to adjustments because they increase a so-called ‘overall trend,’ a metric that involves ridiculously drawing a straight line from 1880-2015 right through the many ups and downs. If you examine the paper itself, you will see it makes only scant mention of the ‘overall trend.’
Embarrassingly for Schmidt/Venema, K15 make clear its own adjustments have no effect on the full period of record (emphasis mine)
For the full period of record (1880–present) (Fig. 2), the new global analysis has essentially the same rate of warming as that of the previous analysis (0.068°C decade−1 and 0.065°C decade−1, respectively) …
K15 state explicitly their adjustments mainly impact the pause:
…reinforcing the point that the new corrections mainly have an impact in recent decades.
This is Carbon Brief in their article on K15 (emphasis mine)
While the authors apply their corrections to the full temperature record stretching back to 1880, the biggest impact is on the rate of warming in recent decades, say the authors.
If misdirection was not enough …
.. confusion is further propagated by misquotation and quote surgery.
Take the example of this Zeke Hausfather tweet:
Hausfather is responding to David Rose’s article on Bates’ criticism of K15. As described, you can see Hausfather talking about NOAA adjustments in general, all taken together, making the exact opposite claim of the paper.
But there’s more. Look at the graph in the tweet which appears to have been created by him and an organization called ‘Climate Feedback‘.
The annotation at the top quotes Rose’s article reads “<<this resulted in the dramatic increase of the overall global trend>>,” making it appear as though Rose was talking about the 1880-2015 overall trend. Climate Feedback then responds (highlighted in yellow) by offering the now-familiar excuse that ‘all adjustments’ decrease the global warming trend.
But head over to the Daily Mail and it is plain Rose is talking about K15 adjustments to ship-buoy sea surface temperatures, affecting the 2000-2014 period, which in turn produced a dramatic increase in the ‘global trend.’
The sea dataset used by Thomas Karl and his colleagues – known as Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures version 4, or ERSSTv4, tripled the warming trend over the sea during the years 2000 to 2014 from just 0.036C per decade – as stated in version 3 – to 0.099C per decade. Individual measurements in some parts of the globe had increased by about 0.1C and this resulted in the dramatic increase of the overall global trend published by the Pausebuster paper.
What adjustments were done in K15 to sea temperatures affected the global trend – big mystery there, isn’t it?
Climate Feedback and Hausfather have to rip out part of a sentence from its context, pretend its author is not saying what he is saying, but instead is something they have a pre-cooking talking point lined up for, in order to pretend they’re providing ‘feedback.’
If you are credible scientists why would you, repeatedly, counter criticism of K15 adjustments by pretending they were about ‘all adjustments’? These are not people who deserve to be taken seriously.
As it is practiced now, no distinct lines are drawn between changes that are needed as an integral part of deriving a global average temperature and adjustments that are justified on grounds of available data being less than ideal. The two are treated as though they were conceptually the one and the same. As much as possible, papers and their authors describe their work as an indispensable part of one amalgamated methodological continuum. This continuum however has no room to distinguish tweaks that produce changes of insignificant magnitude and more significant ones. The main purpose of deriving a global average temperature has shifted from one of monitoring changes over long periods of time, say decades, which requires a reasonably accurate but stable methodology and high-quality data sources, to one that chases the mirage of the ‘one true temperature,’ and increased precision in the service of media talking points and rebuttals to climate skeptics.
Adjustments are not questioned by skeptics because ‘they are produce increase warming.’ As they stand, adjustments reduce the rate of warming during a period of less anthropogenic influence and reduce the rate of post-WWII cooling. They slightly nudge up temperatures to convert a lack of a trend into a positive trend. In other words they seem to serve a variety of purposes, both political and scientific, at different points of time. Rather than cooling or warming overall, they appear to reduce the magnitude of natural variability that is likely present in the instrumental record, as each truth overwrites the previous one. The Climategate emails show the people in charge of deriving a global average openly discussing tweaking warming or cooling during various periods when talking about adjustments. The bias inherent in such a situation lies right in front of our eyes.
Climate scientists are fond of signing their name to activist letters. Usually, these letters end in some fiasco or the other. The latest, the Guardian has reported, is one written by ‘leading scientists’ to British PM Theresa May asking her to persuade Donald Trump away from climate skepticism. The letter (alternate link: here) was ‘delivered to Downing Street on Friday,’ the Independent informs somberly, after being signed by ‘100 of the world’s leading climate researchers working in the UK.’
Not unexpectedly, contained within was the usual combination of admonishments, pleas for funding and veiled threats one has come to expect from climate science nowadays, and sadly enough from the science establishment in general. The tone is dismally poor and presumptuous, a familiarity to anyone associated with the climate debate.
Checking the letter’s metadata in Acrobat showed the letter’s author was one ‘WARDRE.’
That’s right. It is climate activist Bob Ward, ‘Policy and Communications Director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics’ whose name is listed as the document’s author. Ward lists his email address as ‘firstname.lastname@example.org’ at his employer’s web profile. I think it is fair to conclude Bob Ward wrote the entire letter, though other conjectures are possible.
What’s more, Ward signed on the letter himself though he is no scientist. That close to a hundred professors and leaders in UK climate science would sign off on such a poor letter can at best mean they did not read its contents. At worst, they actively worked with an activist Ward and are happy to be tarred by his political brush.
How is this all presented, in the media, to the outside world? Here’s Ward himself on his Twitter feed:
More accurately put, it would read ‘Bob Ward urges Theresa May to pressure Trump on global warming.’
In large part, letter campaigns do not befit science. These types of documents seem to represent the views of small cliques in any discipline, the kind that will not do science and instead spend time in activism. Such letters, usually on a politically sensitive topic, then get passed around head to head and people simply sign off to avoid confrontation, keep the peace and be seen as doing the right thing. Their prestige is used to score political points or ride the news cycle.
UPDATE: It appears the letter is set to ‘private’ on the Scribd document hosting platform. If you travel to this page on the Climate Home website and scroll down, it remains available to read.
The US House Science committee tweeted a link to a James Delingpole article on the drop in atmospheric temperatures of the Na Nina that is underway.
Look at the climate alarmist and intelligentsia response:
Science writer Deborah Blum:
The articulate British scientist Doug McNeall:
PhD scientist Bob Ward:
Former journalist Leo Hickman:
Climate activist ‘Climate Truth’
Climate communicator Michael Mann:
Climate communicator Michael Mann
Climate communicator Things Break:
Climate communicator ‘Climate Truth’
‘Journalist’ Hywel Robers
Anti-e-cig activist John Mashey:
Veteran Climateprogress commenter Lou Grinzo:
Climate communicator Eric Steig:
‘Physicist’ Aatish Bhatia:
That’s right. A veritable stream of tweets feigning outrage and fainting over the name ‘Breitbart’ but not a single one that explains why they are angered.
It’s the flavor of the season: how outraged you manage to be is proof how wrong/evil your opponent is.
In all, I saw one response by biologist Karen James who attempted to come up with some form of reasoning why the US House Science, Space and Technology Committee was wrong:
Unfortunately, with Delingpole’s article becoming ‘heinously misleading,’ there is only emotional ranting and little thinking going on here. The Breitbart article does not say anything about ‘greenhouse gases from human activity causing climate change’ or even ‘something like that.’
All it does is point out how mum the climate establishment has been given the drop in temperatures corresponding to the La Nina. It quotes David Whitehouse and and Myles Allen as sources. What a shocker.
The same establishment makes a deafening racket every time there is an El Nino. In fact, climate activists actively hope for El Nino warm periods so they can hyperventilate about ‘record temperatures’ and advance their policy goals.
Now that Milo Yiannapoulous’ work has been used by propagandists to smear Breitbart as a ‘racist’ platform, it would be doubly delicious were James Delingpole—who has been writing for Breitbart for even longer—to become the de facto source of climate updates. It would be sharp, scientific and right-on-target.
Unlike the dumber-than-a-sack-of-rocks climate activists who can’t find the words or come up a single reason for their outbursts.
Imagine a researcher studies the ideas of psychiatric ward patients suffering hallucinations. “It’s staggering, ” he concludes, ” the evidence points to aliens controlling the minds of these people via special radio waves.”
Now picture a group of astronomers studying the brightness of a distant star (called KIC 8462852). “It is astounding, ” they conclude, “the evidence points to aliens controlling the brightness levels of the star via an enormous mega-structure.”
In the world around you today, if a researcher concluded the former, he would be thrown into an asylum himself. If he arrived at the latter conclusion – that aliens were controlling the brightness of a star – he would be paraded in the front pages of newspapers and be given media interviews.
Want to make lots of money, be famous and sell out? Join science and push out your premature conclusions. Just make sure you include a ‘sci-comm’ hook, like aliens.
Anthony Watts has spawned numerous clones and reaction blogs over the years. The worst is probably ‘Sou Bundanga‘. Sou does not write original material. Instead, every post is a reaction to a WUWT post appended to color commentary and comments lifted wholesale from WUWT itself.
Sou probably is consumed by intense hatred when writing her WUWT reaction blogs. How else can you explain something like this? Reacting to a Watts post on the hypocrisy of climate scientists Sou goes ballistic. Drawing a parallel between Watts’ posts and the shock killing of UK Labour politician Jo Cox, she says:
This is unhinged.
If you are someone who thinks people who read Anthony Watts’ blog—’his nutters’ as she calls them— are capable of murdering scientists and will actually carry it out, you have reached the end of the line. You have no business critiquing, analyzing and dissecting what he writes.
As with Gavin Schmidt it is obvious between Sou and Watts who got carried away politicizing an act of violence.
Go home safe, Sou, you are lost.
A sudden crisis nearly always brings out hidden currents, which may have otherwise never surfaced. In his string of tweets Schmidt appears to blame ‘Brexit’ for the killing. His tweets followed the incident so closely in time there was no reliable information on motive.
The only possibility, then, is Schmidt was influenced by early reports that said the killer shouted “Britain first!” or the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee who wrote a long article squarely laying the blame for the murder at Brexit’s feet.
Schmidt pulls the trick climate activists have been resorting to, for decades:
This is an incredible giveaway, isn’t it? Here we have an activist climate scientist, in the throes of a heated crisis, capitalizing on an event to attribute blame for murder on his political opponents, and going beyond, that if his side is defeated — in a fair election no less — more such incidents would occur.
It is speculation, wrapped in plausible deniability, capped off with a threat. How does he know the incident had anything to do with ‘Leave’?
Rremember, reliable information available on the killer’s motive was next-to-none at the time he wrote this. Yet Gavin Schmidt was quick off the bat.
Why wouldn’t I think he does the same with climate, and weather? ‘While no single weather event can be attributed to anthropogenic global warming, more such disasters would occur in a climate-changed world’ — how many times have we heard this from activists and scientists alike?
It is a reflexive exploitation of a crisis – you ascribe blame on your target, and while you cannot be fully sure it was what caused it, you nevertheless proceed to forecast more of the same, investing the threat with a cloak of probabilism.
Note: I wrote this originally on Medium. Only slightly modified here.
The football coaches, assistant coaches and game strategists were distraught. They had gathered in the most idyllic of resorts in La Jolla for brainstorming.
‘Look, we’ve been playing game after game, not a single win’.
‘Not a win in years’.
Soccer coach Banton Pants stood up. ‘Guys, guys, relax’, he said.
‘In soccer, we used this trick. A player would run straight into the center-forward, collide, fall down injured and cry out loud.’
‘And then..’, cried Namory Goreskes, breathlessly. A football historian by trade, she knew nothing about soccer.
‘What else? ‘The referee would swoop in, pull out the red card and hold it up, the star player would be kicked out. The whole stadium would boo the guy on his way out – for cheating.’
‘We won several matches this way’.
The group went silent. The implications sank in. ‘Wow’, said Goreskes eventually as she clapped slowly. ‘A wonderful idea … such an inspiring template.’
‘So … you’re saying, you run in there, right in front of Exxon, crumple violently throwing up all these old documents culled from a local library into the air, and the referee Attorney General shows up and dismisses Exxon?
‘Yeah and you get unlimited downs after that. And lots of money too’ – concluded Pants.
The coaches left La Jolla energized. They decided to write a report on their meeting, specifically and clearly documenting their plan to use the ‘fake injury red card’ learned from soccer to get opponents kicked out of future American football games.
InsideClimate: NY AG Started RICO Planning Before Any InsideClimate Stories Were Released. Katie Brown, Energy In Depth, June 7, 2016
There is a puff piece for the Oreskes/UCS/CAI RICO racket written by John Schwartz who is ‘science writer for The New York Times.’
Schwartz says the Oreskes/UCS/CAI – labeled the La Jolla junta – have been accused of fomenting a conspiracy when their actions have been out in the open all along. They published their plans in a report. So, no conspiracy he declares.
‘Conspiracy’ has become an easy smear word for too many people. Don’t like your critics? Paint them as people who believe in ‘conspiracies’. ‘Conspiracy’ is the rhetorical sledgehammer of the day.
Look at the activists plan carefully. The group wanted to prosecute the fossil fuel industry in order to imitate tobacco control activists and create ‘public outrage’. This came first. To do this, they needed incriminating documents that fit the RICO legal template. They had none at the time they hatched their plans. Members of the junta worked with state attorney generals who initiated investigations and issued subpeonas to Exxon.
The public narrative is the opposite: InsideClimateNews discovered documents that proved ‘Exxon knew’. This moved the environmentally conscientious attorney generals to launch investigations.
The junta had no reason, no locus or starting point to go after Exxon to begin with. They were conjured up to fit the template of the tobacco court cases. After having decided on the type of documents that were needed, they were ‘found’. Using these, legal summons for further confidential documents were issued – just like it was planned.
This is the very definition of a conspiracy. The fact that the La Jolla junta wrote a report about it doesn’t change the arrow of causality. Dragging companies to court for the express purpose of promoting your environmental cause is a conspiracy.
The US government has known about the dangers of global warming since the first IPCC report.
Yet it has funded the research of scientist John Christy.
He even maintains a satellite temperature record that shows no global warming for the past 18 years.
Climate scientists have said he is ‘providing legitimacy to those who refuse’ to accept global warming.
The US Department of Energy (DOE) knew this. Yet they funded his work, right up to 2014.
The DOE must be investigated by the DOJ for racketeering.
Here’s why: there are a number of people applying a host of wrong techniques to attack.
Take an example: Say your cousin Vinny developed an abscess (ouch). Nothing too big and it’s just starting off. But what if – instead of going to a doctor who would probably lance the boil – you both decide to treat it with antibiotics?
Now, instead of the fleeting pain and subsequent cure, Vinny’s abscess shrinks a bit but walls off. There’s no way to get it out, and it takes forever to resolve.
Take for example, this article on the Paris accord that appeared a while ago in the American Interest.
It has a very promising and intriguing title: “Twilight of the Climate Change Movement”
Wow – you think. Everyone’s celebrating ‘Paris’ in the climate world and here’s someone who thinks it might actually be a disaster for the movement? How interesting.
Drawn in by the premise, you read on, and the author declares:
The climate change movement faces big trouble ahead. Its principal propositions contain two major fallacies that can only become more glaring with time
What are these two fallacies?
…in stark contrast to popular belief … the science on which the dire predictions of manmade climate change is based is nowhere near the level of understanding or certainty that popular discourse commonly ascribes to it.
We know that. Anyone with half a working brain knows that, so good.
… the movement’s embrace of an absolute form of the precautionary principle distorts rational cost-benefit analysis, or throws it out the window altogether.
Here lies the problem.
What makes the author Mario Loyola think the climate movement has anything to do with ‘rational cost-benefit analysis’?
If it were, you could say ‘Yes, these people are hamming it up. they’re not doing a good job’. The issue of a bad cost-benefit analysis comes up only if the thing was a question of cost-benefit analysis.
Has the author never in his studies encountered power-seeking, profiteering, political and personal ambition wrapped up as ‘environmentalism’? Calculating finances to pay for Catholic indulgences might have taken some hard math too, but it takes special talent to get cracking with the calculations but be blind to the charade.
The climate movement is not in trouble because the ‘rationality’ of their cost-benefit analysis is ‘distorted’ by the precautionary principle. The climate movement is a distortion that uses the appearance of cost-benefit analysis to pass itself off as rational.
Loyola recognizes that the climate movement’s agenda is essentially “anti-industrial”.
If one knows this, the way is simply clear: stop taking the impact of estimates of ‘equillibrium climate sensitivity’ on the anti-industrial agenda seriously. The ECS analyses of Nic Lewis’ are interesting but why pretend they have any bearing at all on Bill McKibben’s next move?
There are lots of people in the climate debate who take the quantitative questions thrown up by the voodoo premises of the climate movement quite seriously and analyze them with great effort. The lukewarmers certainly belong in this class.
They have definitely contributed to prolonging humanity’s climate pain.